Run For the Roses past the bas...

If it’s the month of May in America then it’s time for a classic American event, The Kentucky Deby. The first Saturday in May for like the last thousand years is consumed by a horse race that takes about a week to prepare for yet lasts two minutes, seriously. 

As someone who was lucky (or unlucky) enough to spend time in The Bluegrass state it happens every year that many people consider me an expert on horse racing and will continually ask me for my picks which for various reasons will either win or come in dead last. Every year I’ll take a day and go through my methods of wagering on the race yet no one seems to go with it in the end, they all end up going their own ways. Truth be told I think I’ve cashed tickets only twice in The Derby out of maybe 35 races. Go figure. 

This year’s Derby is no different from the rest. First of all, the field is huge(and changing daily)with 22 horses. The track is gonna be mobbed which means there’s gonna be a lot of bumping and grinding going out the gate. Post position is everything. I like the middle positions, 4-5 thru 11-12. The quicker you get out and get away from the gaggle the better and you can’t get  away from it if your getting crammed on the rail or having to run a longer race from far in the outside. It’s called physics.

Every horse in the Kentucky Derby is a really good horse. Owners don’t pay a lot of money (around 50,000k) in entrance fees to enter a nag. Plus, there’s some kind of secret racing society that has to actually nominate the horse which means that Little Tommy down the street who bought a race horse with the hundred bucks he saved mowing lawns can’t enter it and win the roses. Every horse running has a chance no matter if it’s been ripping up the prep races or coming out of no where. This is where jockeys and trainers kick in. 

You can’t put a no body in a race car and expect them to win, but they can make it look easy with a hot driver, right? I can’t in Davie Johnston’s car. I can’t swap seats with Max Verstappen. I look for jockeys that have a good meet, running a lot of winning mounts. Jockeys can go hot and cold just like drivers. It’s easy to find the stats on line. Also, jockeys that have ridden the same horse know better then anyone, especially if they’ve won. Look for a hot jockey!! Additionally, go with the more prominent trainers like D. Wayne Lucas and Todd Pletcher. 

Finally, I’ve found that winners continue to win. Horses that lead their races tend to like it that way. They sprint for the front of the pack. They don’t like to see horses in front of them. If the jockey knows the horse he’ll let a winner run. Great horses can be instinctive. They like to win!

In short, look for a horse that is a combination of all these factors(if you can).Good post position, hot jockey riding well, quality trainer and a horse on a winning streak. My picks for this weekend would be 2, 6 and 11. I like all three of these so some exotic wager (extra,trifecta) will most likely be the case. Regardless I’ll probably change my mind a dozen times, just like every year!!

We’ve finally made it thru the first week of the NBA finals and yes there are some hearts that are broken. The Heat, The Bucks, The 76ers and the Lakers are on their way home. This weekend will give us the results for the rest of the teams. I’m surprised about the Milwaukee Bucks being eliminated but it goes to show that if your main player, the big guy that everyone counts on, is playing hurt it leaves a lot to get thru. The same goes with The Miami Heat(Jimmy Butler out), The Philadelphia Seventy Sixers(Joel Embid hurt) and The LA Lakers. The MBA playoffs has become a matter of survival. It seems that whomever has the most players left standing and not in a knee brace will win!! Let’s hope my picks in the derby fare better then a knee brace!!

Kev

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