LAST WEEKS GAMES MADE ME REVIS...

It goes without saying that we all have our methodology for making picks when it comes to sporting events. A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on cold hard statistics. Others will go straight off win versus loss columns. If you spend hours and hours every week listening to sports radio, watching sports programming or reading sports analytics on line you can become overloaded, you could actually go crazy. Quarterback ratings, run vs run defense statistics, 4th down vs 3rd down success ratios, optimum pass defense scenarios according to player rating etc. etc. etc. what does it all mean? In the end it means absolutely nothing. You either win or you lose your pick, end of story.

When it comes to football, I’ve always followed a few simple rules when making my picks. Sometimes I’m successful and I’m a winner talking a lot of trash, other times it’s a disaster and I’m walking around staring at the ground. In the end I don’t do so bad overall but let’s just say I’m not ready to retire and move to Las Vegas yet.

For those of you out there who may be interested in my own personal methodology here are my basic rules when I make picks in football. If you’re not interested then just read on and deal with it.

Rule #1. Playing at home is a huge advantage. I’ve stated this many times in the past. The home field crowd can carry you and they can make it miserable for a visiting team. In college games home field advantage is worth 7 points in my book, in The NFL it’s worth 3.5 points. If it’s a close decision, I always go with the home team especially when they’re getting points.

Rule #2. Your offense needs to have a decent and healthy running game. If your running back is hobbling around the side lines in a leg brace or carted off the field on a stretcher your season is goanna end and end soon. A decent running game takes pressure of your Quarterback and allows him to do his job. It doesn’t have to be an amazing or stellar running game, but it needs to be healthy and relevant and in the game.

Rule #3 Weather and field condition is everything. Ever try and play football in the rain and snow? It sucks. Every try to play in 110-degree heat? It’s a nightmare. It makes the game infinitely more difficult. And on this note, teams that play under domes suffer when they go to grass fields that are open to Mother Nature. Teams that play indoors tend to be a little soft, they prance around worrying about how clean they look and complain when there’s a little water on the field. Outdoor teams play brutal, hard-hitting football with a lot of mud and blood splattered around. To me this rule is The Big Equalizer.

Rule #4 You need to have a place kicker that makes extra points and field goals. Period. End of story. If the game is close as it usually can be in the playoffs the place kicker is your best friend or worst enemy.

Rule #5 Your skill players (Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Running Backs, Tight Ends, Kickers) need to have what I call the “Assassin Attitude”. When they have the momentum, when they have you on the ropes, they need to go for the jugular, they need to grab you by the neck and not let go. You can see it in their eyes when they have it winning or losing. They don’t give up. They keep coming at you no matter what. Some teams have it, some teams don’t. it pretty much starts with the man at the top, the Head Coach. Old school coaches, the ones that have been in the league for 20 or 30 years, have the killer instinct. The new school guys, the so-called football whisperers and quarterback gurus are too worried about their social media image and their analytics. For me this makes a huge difference. I pick old school every time.

Rule #6 This for me is the big one. I love underdogs. It’s hard for me not pick them. I literally have to convince myself why they can’t win before I pick them. When I hear or watch or read national sports media go the route of “they have no chance” or “he can’t lead them to a win” or “they’re season is goanna end this weekend “I’m usually all over it. Nothing gives me greater joy then to see the underdog win. If the underdog is getting a huge number of points, I’m usually going with them.

With all of this in mind now, let’s apply my rules on picking games to what we have seen this weekend

Jacksonville vs Kansas City. Probably the best game of the weekend. Jacksonville losing 27-20 to Kansas City is almost a victory considering how far they’ve come this year. I think you could literally hack off one of Patrick Mahone’s limbs and the guy would still play lights out football. I like underdogs. I took the Jags and won with the points.

The New York Giants getting crushed by Philadelphia 38-7 is not the game I expected on Saturday night. When you lose by 31 it doesn’t matter what the point spread was. The Giants were on a roll until they made the trip to Philly, needless to say I was flipping through the channels at half time when the game appeared to be over already. I took the Giants thinking this would be a close game. They have a solid running game and all reports indicated Jalen Hurts was playing injured. I was mistaken. I had The Giants and lost.

Sunday was a tough day for The Buffalo Bills. The entire world, including yours truly, had them picked to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow had other plans unfortunately. The result was a bone crushing defeat in the snow and the cold. Someone once said “Weather is the great equalizer”. They were right. The final score was 27-10. Not even the return of Damar Hamlin and his 10 million dollar Go Fund Me Account could help. The Curse continues. I had the Bills just like everyone. I lost just like everyone.

I’m not a huge Dallas Cowboys fan. In my opinion American’s Team should be The Miami Dolphins. That fact aside, I will say that if I was in charge of The Cowboys I would trade Dak Prescott, fire Mike McCarthy and commit Jerry Jones to an old folks home. Their loss to The San Francisco 49ers 19-12 was an embarrassment. It wasn’t that they lost so much as to how they lost. It was pathetic to watch. I had the Niners and they covered but Holy Cow what a disappointing game. I was expecting more. The Dallas Cowboys have become America’s Joke.

The weekend was a 50/50 split for me, I went 2 for 4. I watched a lot of good football. I got to see my neighbor burn his Dak Prescott jersey. There are analysts out there in the national media who get paid millions to pick winners and they fared no bet then I. I like my six rules and I’ll stick with them. Next weekend for the Conference Championships will be the same. I’m looking to improve to 2 for 2 next week! On to The Championships!

Kev