Juan Soto free-agency sweepsta...

Rewatch the three-minute magic show and remind yourself why Juan Soto is about to shatter the record for the largest free-agent contract in MLB history.

It was Oct. 19: Game 5 of the American League Championship Series. Soto’s then-employer, the New York Yankees, needed one win to reach the franchise’s first World Series in 15 years. With the Yankees and Cleveland Guardians tied in the top of the 10th inning, Soto came to the dish with two outs and two on. What transpired was one of the most sensational at-bats in recent memory.

The first six pitches were off-speed. Soto took them or fouled them off, his eyes hyper-focused on Hunter Gaddis like a lion stalking its prey. After each foul ball, Soto gazed back toward the hurler and, with a mischievous smile, nodded his head in delight. And then, magic. On Gaddis’ seventh offering, the first fastball of the at-bat, Soto cranked one high into the Ohio night for a World Series-clinching long ball.

That showdown showcased everything that makes Soto generational, singular, otherworldly. The swagger, the intelligence, the presence — and the skills to back it all up. There is nothing quite like it. And as soon as the Yankees flamed out of the World Series, Soto and his foray into free agency immediately became the story of the sport.

The questions are already piling up. Traded to the Yankees only last offseason, will the four-time All-Star return to the Bronx? Or will he jet after one year? Is a crosstown move to the resurgent Mets in the cards? How silly could the bidding war between the Big Apple franchises get? Do any teams outside of New York have a fighting chance? Will Soto surpass the $600 million plateau? How many years will he get? Will the contract be deferred like Shohei Ohtani’s?

These unknowns will dominate this winter of baseball. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, the most notorious representative in the game, will surely heighten the drama. Yet it all boils down to three simple questions: Where? How long? And how much?

How’d we get here?

Soto debuted with the Washington Nationals in May 2018 as a baby-faced 19-year-old. The next season, the Dominican outfielder helped propel the Nats to a World Series championship. Soto homered five times that October, solidifying himself as one of the game’s most exhilarating talents capable of raising his game on the biggest stage.

Over the next few seasons, as the Nationals cratered in the afterglow of their title, Soto continued to shine. He finished second in 2021 NL MVP voting, behind former teammate Bryce Harper. In 2022 came a contract extension offer from the Nats: 15 years, $440 million. Soto and Boras declined the offer, betting that the slugger's skills would warrant an even heftier sum on the open market. The Nationals, having taken their best shot, then dealt Soto to the Padres for a massive package of prospects.

In San Diego, Soto stagnated, at least by his lofty standards. His numbers remained sparkling, as evidenced by a sixth-place MVP finish in 2023, but Soto was undeniably less than his best. So when the Padres, looking to reduce payroll ahead of the 2024 season, shipped Soto to the Bronx, it set up an unforgettable year in pinstripes. As a Yankee, the swaggering slugger reasserted himself as one of the undisputed best players in the world.

This past year in New York was a sales pitch, a test-run and, at times, a plea. The Yankees and their fans want Soto back, desperately. And the outfielder played the part smartly, saying all the right things and returning all the love thrown his way.

But now that any team could, theoretically, pay for Soto’s services, it’s unclear if all the clamoring had any influence on the superstar. Because when push comes to shove, nothing talks louder than money.

Why is Soto about to get paid such a hefty sum?

Two factors explain the hype: age and performance.

The performance you understand; you’ve watched and witnessed. Sure, he’s a middling defensive player and a poor baserunner, but Soto is one of the most impactful offensive players of the century. He’s a game-changing presence.

Let’s look at the value of his age. Soto turned 26 on Oct. 25, the day of World Series Game 1. Rarely do players hit the open market at such a young age. Soto’s youth is a product of his debuting at just 19 years old, an age when most players are either in the minor leagues or still in college. Soto, on the other hand, was going yard in his first MLB start five months before his 20th birthday. For some additional context, 255 players made their MLB debuts in 2024. Of those, 113 are older than Soto.

Players who reach the majors so swiftly are typically atypically talented, making them prime targets for long-term contract extensions. That didn’t happen with Soto, in part because the Nationals and Padres weren’t competitively or financially able and in part because Boras has a noted distaste for extensions. By the time Soto wound up with the Yankees, the open market was too close to ignore.

Only a handful of players have ever reached free agency at such a young age, the most recent examples being Harper and Manny Machado in 2018. Both received an average annual value around $30 million, with Harper earning $330 million over 13 years and Machado getting $300 million over 10. Both deals, in hindsight, look like underpays. Machado, who could’ve opted out of his contract after 2023, agreed to a heftier, reworked extension with the Padres. Harper, a smashing success in Philly, looks like such a bargain that Boras tried to angle for a new contract for him as well.

Soto will blow past such precedents. He has been a better, more productive player than both Harper and Machado were when they reached free agency, and he offers a significantly higher offensive floor given his on-base skills. Those factors, plus natural inflation and the continued growth of the market, mean that Soto should end up well over $500 million.

But by how much?

How high could the number go?

One thing is clear: Boras and Soto want to surpass, in present-day value, what Ohtani got last winter. The two-way star’s deferral-heavy, $700 million deal — Ohtani is being paid $2 million per year for 10 years, then $68 million per year for the next 10 — is worth much less in present-day value (around $46 million per year, according to Jon Becker of FanGraphs).

That puts the absolute, absolute floor for Soto at 10 years, $460 million. However, he’s a near lock to blow past that figure.

Given Soto’s age, it wouldn’t be a surprise for a team to commit 12 or even 13 years to the superstar outfielder. At $46 million per year, that would work out to $552 million or $598 million. In light of the bidding war likely to ensue, it would not be shocking to see the number rise above $600 million in real value. In my opinion, something like 14 years, $650 million feels like a realistic ceiling.

Which teams have a chance?

As the lifestyle brand says: New York or nowhere.

It’s not actually that clear cut, but the understanding around baseball is that the two Big Apple clubs are far and away the likeliest landing spots for Soto, with the Yankees still the front-runners. Soto going anywhere beyond New York would classify as an absolute bombshell.

For the record, evaluating which teams would be a good “fit” for Soto is like figuring out which of your friends could use a million bucks in cash.

Tier 1

Yankees: If you watched the playoffs, you get how much this roster needs Soto. The Yankees have made no secrets about how much they’d love to retain the dynamic left-hander, whose bat is a perfect match for Yankee Stadium’s short porch. GM Brian Cashman and Co. have a good bit of dough coming off the books this winter — a little under $60 million before any potential non-tenders, according to Roster Resource. That gives them the financial might to keep Soto and Judge hitting back-to-back for the foreseeable future.

Mets: Owner Steve Cohen loves making a splash and would absolutely adore swiping Soto from the crosstown rivals. Despite his high-spending tendencies, the Mets have just $162 million committed to players for next season, a drastic decline from their $338 million payroll in 2024. Some of that money must go into rebuilding a rotation set to be picked apart in free agency, but there’s more than enough cash to accommodate Soto.

Tier 2

Dodgers: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. The World Series champs have an open spot in the outfield with Teoscar Hernández entering free agency as well. And it’s not like this franchise just lost money with their 2024 season.

Cubs: Chicago has a bunch of good players but no truly exceptional ones. Soto would fix that problem. We’ve never seen this club push its payroll over the $250 million mark, which it would likely have to do to reel in Soto, but frustration is undoubtedly brewing on the North Side after a dispiriting 2024. Cody Bellinger’s decision to opt in to another year and $27.5 million complicates things a bit, but the Cubs shouldn’t let that impede them from pursuing Soto.

Blue Jays: Toronto took a huge swing but missed out on Ohtani (even if some still think Ohtani is on that plane). That showed a willingness from the Blue Jays to spend big, though it’s unclear whether this front office and leadership group would make a similar play for Soto.

Giants: San Francisco has missed out on big fish after big fish over the past decade. First it was Giancarlo Stanton, then Judge and then Ohtani. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey has internal sway and is tired of his beloved club wallowing in mediocrity. Whether the franchise legend can convince ownership to make this level of investment remains to be seen, though.

Phillies: Another disappointing October exit could push famously aggressive owner John Middleton into total “screw it” mode. And despite the continuity in this roster, there are some key players soon to be out of contract. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents after the 2025 season, and outfielder Nick Castellanos’ contract will run out after 2026.

Orioles: It’s unlikely that this risk-averse front office would commit so much to one player, but Baltimore absolutely should be involved here. The O’s have a new owner looking to spend, a relatively small payroll and a strong core that needs some help.

Nationals: This would be a homecoming for the ages. Soto still has an affinity for the team that first signed him and maintains a close relationship with Nats skipper Davey Martinez. Washington’s payroll right now is below $100 million, and they have an interesting core of young players who could benefit from hitting around Soto. But it all seems too good to be true, and if Soto wants to win immediately, D.C. might not be the place to do it.

Tigers: This one is simple. The payroll is under $100 million, and the Tigers are a good, young team that should invest in good, young players.